This one has more holes than my previous two...
Napoleon's rather dashing exploits as an officer in Italy earn him a musket ball in the chest, and he dies. There is no immediate consequence - just another promising young officer paying the ultimate price for leading from the front.
However, without his firm hand the uprisings in Paris are not fully quenched. Rebellions against the Revolution take hold, and France is wracked with what becomes a civil war. Surrounding powers see their opportunities (Prussia and Austria to grab territory and end French aggression, and Britain to stamp out the politically dangerous ideals of Republicanism) and pitch in. Revolutionary France is crushed, and the Monarchy is restored (via some distant relative borrowed from somewhere). Territorially, France loses Alsace and Lorraine to the Prussians, and Corsica to the Austrians. Her king is tied to very restrictive treaties with just about everybody, essentially aiming to prevent any offensive actions by the French ever, as well as being less than subtly reminded by all parties that he sits on his throne purely from their support.
With France no longer the aggressor state, Prussia and Austria settle down to fighting each other, with Prussia emerging victorious. Austrian unity was initially strengthened by the war, but the actions of the elite in the war - as well as the result - cause massive disunity, and it begins to fragment. Prussia, ever the opportunist, begins to carve chunks out of the dying nation. Russia and The Ottoman Empire follow suit, but with lesser success.
Britain, though distracted by Imperial ambitions, recognises that Prussia has become the overbearingly dominant force in Europe. To counter this, it raises a coalition (based on Britain, France and Austria) and declares war on Prussia. The Ottoman Empire joins the Prussians, while Russia sits on the fence.
The war is a long one. The vaunted Franco-British naval blockade has little effect on Prussia, though it does manage to eventually knock The Ottoman Empire out of the war by forcing the Dardanelles (at great cost). However, that is no great help, as The Ottoman Empire's contribution is very ineffectual. The relatively small armies of Britain & France, coupled with the large but crumbling armies of Austria, struggle to defeat the large and well-oiled Prussian military machine. The situation is further complicated by the continuing breakup of Austria, with various regiments switching sides at will. Eventually, the issue is decided the Russians, who realise that they have a golden opportunity to cripple both Prussia and The Ottoman Empire while their backs are turned. The huge reinforcement of Russian troops tips the tide, and the coalition wins. The peace treaty is a long time coming, but eventually has the following decisions:
1) Alsace, Lorraine and Corsica return to France
2) Austria becomes two separate states, with an amnesty allowing people to move to whichever they choose.
3) Russia and Austria share the ex-Ottoman lands in Europe, with Constantinople falling under Russian control. Passage through to the Black Sea is laid out as a legal right for all nations at peace with Russia and her allies.
4) Prussia faces a variety of harsh terms.
The biggest outcome for the future is the unprecedented example of Austria. The imposed division causes great unrest and bad feeling within the country – and indeed in the ex-Ottoman lands it expands into (basically Greece). This corner of the world becomes analogous to the Balkans in real life, but on a much grander scale. Lots of unrest looms large in Europe’s future as a result. In related news, the Ottomans (stung by their easy defeat at European hands) modernise.
Notes – by ‘Prussia’ I mean a mixture of both Prussia and various of the Rhine confederation. Similar for Austria
"Study the past, if you would divine the future"
"I am pedantic, I'm just being overshadowed by Ricky so it isn't as noticable as it would else have been"