Crimea / Ukraine

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Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Ricky » Thu May 01, 2014 7:55 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26270866

So, what do we think about the whole Ukraine crisis?
To anybody who studies the opening moves of WW1 and WW2, it all looks depressingly familiar...
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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby SturmTiger » Fri May 02, 2014 11:46 am

I hope it stays in-house.
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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby dutchman » Sat May 03, 2014 8:54 pm

I'm afraid the Ukraine is at great risk. I don't think they can stop an armed atempt to take them over.
However, I don't think it would led to outside involvement. The United States has sent some aid to Ukraine, but not much in the way of weapons. That might be wise? If the chance of the defenders holding out are small, then adding weapons may not change the results and only better arm the invaders. I know that sounds pesimistic, but the situation is not looking good.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sun May 04, 2014 4:31 pm

Ukraine doesn't need arms. It was arms depot for SSSR (west, north west and south west military districts) and does have well developed and modern arms industry itself (just check who was supplying the "embargoed nations and tribes" for last 25 years). And with RE US help: the MRE's that were sent were sold trough Ebay while armed forces are starving (capitalism in action).

They do have a problem with soldiers i.e. regular Ukranian army doesn't want to interfere and attack its own citizens and army detests public proclamations about killing off russians, jews and other minorities (comprising more than half of entire population) uttered by Pravy sektor and some in US supported goverment. In first clashes in the east lots of regulars switched sides and brought significant reinforcements to federalists (per western media pro-russian) to the extent that one elite paratrooper brigade was disbanded due to "cowardice" i.e. refusal to fire on civilians. That is also the reason for stopping initial assaults in the east. Then regular army was started to be replaced with "national guard" i.e. legalised nao-nazis a process which is now more or less complete hence continuing of offensive on federalists.

In Crimea the unmarked soldiers as per western media proof of russian invasion were most probably from local Ukranian interior armies (i'm 99,95% shure in that one) which 100% changed sides with smatering of former Berkut that returned from Kiev. Interior Army was/is territorially organised and in Crimea almost all serving in IA were locals. Crimean IA comprised of one complete regiment, several independant companies and some smaller special forces units.

The Ukranian "national guard" are nothing but legalised nao-nazis from Pravy sektor armed from Ukranian army depots (also sticking point in Geneva agreament as per Russian point of view they should also be disarmed) and while they do have numbers right now against federalists they are poorly trained for any serious combat. Federalists are mix of halftrained civilan locals and mostly local old veterans (there is entire subclass of poeple in former SSSR that were/are contract soldiers moving from war to war and from army to army for last 25 years).
Another problem is that most neo-nazi are the north west (prewar eastern poland) and even ethnic ukranians in east and south don't really support new goverment (that is why in last clashes in Odessa pro-Ukranian hooligans were mostly imported from north) and anything resembling industry is located in the east (ethnic Russian and Ukranian mix) and had almost all bussines with russia and not the west.
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
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I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Hoosier » Mon May 05, 2014 2:02 am

TISO:
We 'Western 'Devils' want to see pix of pretty Ukrainian girls... something worth fighting for eh?! :mrgreen:
Who are YOU rooting for in this 'uprising?
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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Mon May 05, 2014 11:20 pm

Hoosier wrote:TISO:
We 'Western 'Devils' want to see pix of pretty Ukrainian girls... something worth fighting for eh?! :mrgreen:
Who are YOU rooting for in this 'uprising?
--Tim

If somene starts campaign of demonising you, clearly states they will kill or expell you (from the area that is historicaly yours for at least last 1000+ years) and his first "official" act is forbiding official use of your languge and squadrist gangs start beating up poeple on the streats for using their own languge (and now even burning poeple alive) you can understand for who i'm rooting. Not least as we had identical experiance with italian fachists (pre and during ww2) and german nazis (during ww2).

As for latest incident in Odessa i.e. forcing poeple into a building and then burning them alive (and then beating up wounded survivors) it has a bit different connotation in the west where it is a bit abstract (only one incident in France) as in the east where it was SOP (standard operating procedure) used by germans and quislings. It is clear indication for many in the east and south ukraine (not to mention byelarusians who are also on hit list) who have completly different historical experiance than those living in pre war Poland (which west ukraine was) that those glorifying ukranian ww2 collaborators (who BTW helped Holocaust with gusto and killed between 200.000 and 400.000 Polish civilians while they were at it) are quite serious with their threats.

So after Odessa i was a little bit suprised that cup didn't overflow already. IMHO Russians have thus far shown patience of a saint, but cup is filling and when it overflows and inevitable retribution comes nothing US and EU says and does will matter anymore. Then you can expect Russian intervention in Ukraine and large shipments of S-300 and much more for Iran not to mention some other countries US would rather see without sofisticated military equipment + possible support for some actors that are on US shit list.
As for santions Russia has other customers for gas and oil (India is now paying Iranian oil with gold bars and China pipelines are AFAIK in operation and possible extension to India trough china is in works).
The only way out of this mess is for the nazis to take a step back and swallow their pride which they would be foced to to do if uncritical support of US and EU for cue goverment stops.

BTW
Baltic states are shit scared (even tough they are in NATO and EU) as their treatment of significant russian populations is not much different. IMHO Russians there shoud sue them in EU court as as they have good precendent - we had to pay significant damage payment to non-slovenes that were erased from books of permanent residentship after 91 even tough they were all offered citizenship which was not the case in baltic republics.
Poland is not that scred becouse Russia doesn' give shit about them (they do however really care about ABM shield) but their politicians are panicking, especcialy American Enterprised Institute Polish franchise i.e. Polish foreign minister and his wife (Anne Appelbaum of US main stream media fame) due to Iskanders, S-300 and S-400 Triumf systems stationed in Kaliningrad (not to mention other "toys" russian stationed there in last few years) which cover large chunk of Poland (then president Medvedev promised their stationing there way back in 2008 if US ABM shield goes forth)
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sat May 17, 2014 9:54 pm

RE Ukraines Hungarians and Rusyns and Hungarian goverment (right leaning) also started grumbling against current "authorities" in Kiev (includes also an article from late april):
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_17/Hungarys-PM-calls-again-to-grant-autonomy-to-Hungarians-in-Ukraine-7395/

Seems that some italians have enough biased reporting on ukraine (also a good cause for comming EU parliament elections):
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_17/Hundreds-of-Italians-protest-against-EU-media-distorting-reports-on-Ukraine-9572/

BTW if anyone missed top prosecutor in Crimea Poklonskaya Natalia Vladimirovna bio and photogallery:
http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_05_16/photo-I-want-my-child-to-live-in-an-honest-country-Natalia-Poklonskaya-0985/?slide-9
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sun May 18, 2014 3:16 pm

Interesting from way back in early 2008:
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MO ... #efmA6CBCj
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sat Jun 07, 2014 10:03 am

We'll see how true this news is:
http://www.liveinternet.ru/users/3905883/post326850204/

According to the article approx.1500 ukranian soldiers in unit No.1302 stationed in Cherkassky Novomoskovskiy area of Dnepropetrovsk oblast mutinied and refused orders "by illigal hunta" to kill civilians in Donbass. At the moment mutineers (mostly mobilesed soldiers) are positioned in the vicinity of blokpost near village Orlovshina and "National guard" unit are preparing to attack them.

It is quite possible that a similar event already happened (unit of ukranian regulars was attacked by "national guard" and then hit with helicopter gunship strike) but that was then written off to lack of coordination.
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:05 am

I think that the Ukraine situation is an interesting demonstration of how we need to rethink the structure of current defence bodies.

The Ukraine is not a member of NATO and is not, therefore, guaranteed any sort of military protection from that body. The Baltic states, however, are NATO members and are currently very nervous that they are next on the list. How would the West react were 'Russian minority separatists', with or without their full Russian military kit, start an insurgent campaign to bring them back under Moscow's influence?

NATO is a big-weapon, broad stroke organisation. It was developed and equipped to deal with major Soviet military attacks using conventional weapons. Yes, it can perform smaller taskings such as discrete air strikes to support ground-based troops, but it has few real units to act in a paramilitary anti-insurgent policing capability. Each army has its own Special Forces and military police, but the former are too expensive and politically inflammatory to use in a situation like the Ukraine, and the latter are not really designed or equipped for firefights.

Maybe the time has come to think of the creation of an international paramilitary body that can be deployed to aid member states. NATO might not be a good organisation to control this body as it might confuse the organisation's goals and doctrine somewhat, but attaching it to something like the European Defence Agency or Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe would seem logical. It must not become a military force designed for coercion or political dominance, but a paramilitary force that can enforce border controls and aid member states' internal security against insurgent activity of the type seen in the Ukraine.

Of course, I'm not the first person to think of this, but so far little has been done. With the continued situation in the Ukraine, perhaps it might become a little more of a priority on the international European forum.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Ricky » Tue Jun 10, 2014 7:26 am

Isn't that usually the task for UN peacekeeper troops?
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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Tue Jun 10, 2014 1:49 pm

I thought I'd just posted this, but my post appears to have disappeared! I'm afraid my first post contained most of the detail - this is more of a synopsis of it.

The UN Peacekeeping force is better suited to counter-insurgency than NATO, but still falls short of what is really needed. It is basically composed of regular army units from the participating UN countries, some of which have a little counter-insurgency experience and training, but by no means all. Ironically, the UN Police have insufficient military equipment and training to deal with armed insurgents, what is required is something falling between those two stools.

In addition, its very employment requires that the UN Security Council (UNSC) agrees that UN intervention is required. This is tricky when one of the belligerents is a member of, or is politically supported by a member of, the UNSC and thus UN intervention is likely to be vetoed.

Europe is a continent of individual countries and fragmented law-enforcement and military doctrines. It would be difficult for a continent-wide force to be put together under current legislation, but a centralised force is what is needed if the EDA or OSCE is to have teeth to enforce its decisions. A unified specialist counter-insurgency force under EDA or OSCE control seems the answer.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Thu Jun 12, 2014 1:59 pm

Seems that even Ukranian "national guard" i.e. neo nazis from right sector is on the verge of mutiny - at least some units that were not paid and properly equipped:
http://rt.com/news/165472-ukraine-national-guard-mutiny/
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sat Jun 14, 2014 5:53 pm

Ups and downs for the Ukraine.

It manages to retake Mariupol but loses an Il-76 with 49 personnel and supplies. As if that wasn't enough, it looks like Putin is now upping the stakes by supplying tanks and MRLS to the insurgents. Russia is playing what might turn out to be a very dangerous game, and not exactly being clever about it. Russian air-mobile and mechanised troops in Crimea with identified Russian military vehicles, 'insurgents' fully equipped to current Russian infantry specifications (including body armour), and now tanks in Russian colours and with old-style Russian ERA turret fit (being distinct from the Ukrainian camo and T-64BM Bulat turret fit).

I am wondering if Putin is going to escalate by giving the insurgents enough hardware and 'advisors' to have Ukraine burst into a full-scale civil war, then de-escalate and become the good guy, all the while hoping that everyone will forget about Crimea.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sun Jun 15, 2014 12:00 pm

First of all "NATO says" doesn't have any credibility whatsoever (and my country is in NATO and i used to work in MoD). Secondly taking satelite photos of Russian military base in Russia and extrapolating anything out of that is murky at best (we all remembre extrapolations of US experts ragarding Iraq). Russian defence minister Shoigu said recently that russia has right to move anything anywhere on russian territory regardless of opinion of their "foreign partners".
As for T-64's I wouldn't read too much from tanks with soviet times (that would be your "old-style Russian ERA turret fit") ERA config and faded green colour. From wiki :
Ukraine – 2,345 were in service as of 1995, 2,277 as of 2000 and 2,215 as of 2005.[15] Currently, around 600 are in service, 900+ in storage and over 100 from those that are in active service are modernized to T-64BM Bulat.

So basicly Ukraine has at least 1500 T-64's of which only 100+ are BM "Bulat" version which leaves 1400 of this tanks in non BM versions. And some of those storage facilities are in east Ukraine which was major soviet and later ukranian arms manufacturer region (basicly anything resembling industry is located in eastern ukraine). Just a note in area of Slavyansk there is huge reserve arms depot with more that 3million pcs of inf. weapons (ranging from ww2 to latest) which was tha main reason for clashes in the area (locals wanting to prevent "national guard" to take it). Haven't seen any of GRAD or other MLRS systems (in russian parlance "system of volley fire") in federalist hands yet so i'm not prepared to buy MLRS story yet.

In all this exctiting brethless russia bashing WSJ seemed to forgot to mention a small Ukranian excursion into Russian territory. An Ukranian BMP crossed a few km into Russian territory breaking down and second BMP entering russian territory trying to pull the first one back (mission was scraped and first BMP stayed in Russia). Crew managed to escape back to Ukraine. BTW Ukranian frontier units which are cut off are quite regularilly ressuplied trough russian territory (russians haven't made a problem out of it this far but that could change).
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich


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