Crimea / Ukraine

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:02 pm

TISO wrote:Interestingly this didn't get more play in western media.

Possibly because if the West reported on every little propaganda fabrication we'd never see anything else? A similar genocide-themed 'story' had come out a few month before this one: http://www.examiner.com/article/russian ... s-genocide, so we're getting tired of them now. The fact they are all faked is hardly surprising. That we in the West don't feel the need to dignify them with coverage is just as unsurprising.

This report?

Well, you have a speech talking about resettlement which is twisted by minor pro-Russian media outlets into meaning concentration camps and extermination. This interpretation is really stretching credibility. The equating the Ukraine with the Nazis is not new - Moscow has been doing it from the beginning (despite the irony that Putin's actions have far more in common with Hitler's that the Ukraine's). I guess when your moral standing is as low as Moscow's you are going to try anything to gain some high ground.

Then you have a dark video purporting to show something. It doesn't. There is no clue as to who is involved, where or when it happened, or whether it is staged or not. You can't just grab a piece of video and use it as evidence when it plainly shows nothing that can be checked, proved or supported elsewhere.

After the 'photo' of MH-17, nothing coming from Moscow or Moscow's propaganda organs can be taken at face value.
Last edited by Sadurian on Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:25 pm

Looks like the current conflict might be 'won' by whoever goes bankrupt last.
Russian economy to shrink 5%, says EBRD

Of course, Moscow is denying there's a problem!
Rogozin ridicules Obama claim of Russian economy in ruins

Despite the rouble being in free-fall and Russia's primary export at its lowest value since 2009, Rogozin thinks that the Russian economy is on the upturn. Well, you've got to love someone willing to be that optimistic in the face of all the evidence.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:41 am

An interesting piece from the BBC about the Russian obsession with Maskirovka. Nothing really new there, but a timely piece nonetheless. What I found interesting was that some Russian journalists appear to know what the score is, yet (wisely) don't reveal what is really happening. In a country where not supporting Putin leads to state interest in your affairs, Russian journalists are in a dangerous situation.

How Russia outfoxes its enemies. The podcast is worth a listen as well, if you have access to it where you are (link is in the article).

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:41 pm

A piece from Keir Giles today on the BBC, suggesting that Russia is using the Ukraine conflict to live-test its new weapon systems, especially the formerly poor communications and ECM aspects. Keir Giles, for those who are not aware of him, is director of the Conflict Studies Research Centre and associate fellow of the International Security department and the Russia and Eurasia programme at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). He is considered an expert on NATO-Russia relations and the Russian military in general, and is very well respected in the field.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31146595

As well as modern armour, AT and AA missiles, outclassing what the Ukraine forces have access to, modern Russian communications are allowing the jamming of Ukrainian short-range communications and also homing in on them for targeting with artillery. This is a step up from the situation during the war in Georgia, where electronic warfare was identified as a weakness. Now Russia gets to 'field-test' its systems against the Ukraine, which does not currently have access to modern ECM or communications.

What I found very interesting was a possible reason why the West aren't supplying communications equipment at present. To do so would give Russia the opportunity to capture and examine such equipment, and thus develop counter-measures. On the modern battlefield, C4I (Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence) is almost as important as the stuff that kills people, and to make such technology available to the Russians in the Ukraine conflict would be foolish at this stage.

Maybe such thinking is also behind the decision to not supply lethal weapons systems, but I am not quite that cynical and do believe that this is primarily to avoid thrown petrol onto an already blazing situation. In addition, I doubt that the West has a great deal of hardware to spare at present! Whilst it would be an advantage to test out our toys in a live war, we can learn a great deal by reverse-engineering the Russian hardware and tactics being demonstrated in the Ukraine. This is not ideal, but it does have the advantage that it does not allow Russia to analyse the latest Western hardware in action against its own systems.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Tue Feb 10, 2015 3:56 pm

Seems that Novorosiya has an airforce. They annonuced that their Su-25 bombed and strafed ukranian army colum on Artyomovsk-Debaltsevo road.
Interesting plane fuselage+eng cowls seem repainted in gray-green splinter scheme confirming to no known standard and wing looks like washed out old 3 colour camo (tan+ 2 greens). Also plane has no flare despensers on rear engine cowls (standard for first line Su-25 planes since Afganistan). For now it is speculated it is a "supermarket" version i.e. bashed together from parts found here and there (Lugansk AF museum was mentioned same as for a couple L-29 and L-39 trainers/strike aircraft) or plane flown to the other side from ukrainian AF. The enscription on the left side of fuselage (engine cowl) means "For Odessa!".

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"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sat Feb 14, 2015 6:12 pm

Just as the Ukraine thought it couldn't get any worse, the UK sells them the Saxon APC.

It's a long-standing deal that precedes the current war, and the Saxon can be described as a military weapon only in the widest sense of the term. It is lightly armoured, high-silhouetted, and not well protected against IEDs and mines (although it does give reasonable crew protection against landmines). It was always designed as a lightly armoured troop transport and certainly not an armoured fighting vehicle.

Information is that the Ukraine forces will be kitting it out to their own specifications. We can only hope that the poor sods don't try to mount heavy weaponry on it and use it as an armoured car in the front line.

For the deal itself, the Ukraine gets a reasonable low-intensity conflict battle bus, and the UK gets some cash for its old and surplus vehicles. It was either that or sell them off for the monster-truck arena.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:23 pm

Don't worry Sadurian Czehs and Hungarians are selling T-72's to Ukraine
Thank you note to the Czehs with RE Czeh company Excalibur Defense Ltd.:
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/dr_lenivec/69815700/1583/1583_900.jpg

Hungarian T-72's bought for the price of scrap iron by Excalibur Defense Ltd. on railcars on way toward Ukraine (article is in Hungarian- use Google translate) with links to documents. Basicly they are asking why did hungarian MoD sell tanks at 10% of market value.
http://www.hidfo.net.ru/2014/08/12/hulladekvas-araert-eladott-honvedsegi-harckocsik-utban-az-ukrajnai-haboru-fele

Just as a curiosity Serbia is now suddenly selling off a lot of their hardware way below market value (lots of T-55's, T-72's, BTR's, BVP-60, BVP-80's and huge numbers of US produced artillery pieces of 105 and 155mm calibre and of course ammunition for all of them). Also interesting to note that this was annonced right after failed Ukranian winter offensive where they got serious mauling and lost a lot of their hardware. Gazing into my christall ball i predict that companies like Excalibur will buy them and they will appear next in Ukraine.

BTW Ukranian chief of staff admits that there are no russian army units in Donbass:
http://fakty.ictv.ua/ru/index/read-news/id/1541071

And ukranian forces already broke the truce in area of Debeltsevo by starting artilery and mortar barrage on Novorossiya positions while ukranian nazis and private battalions were already saying they will not obey truce signed in Minsk. IMHO the new Minsk agreament is just buying time for ukranianians after debacle which was failed and mauled ukranian winter offensive. IMHO the new Ukranian offensive will start in april-may timeframe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGlzomxxNro
Last edited by TISO on Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:44 pm

ICTV, that Ukrainian TV station that, since the 2014 Crimean invasion, has suddenly switched to broadcasting Russian TV shows and pro-Russian content instead of its former domestic Ukrainian material?

No Russian units? We've all moved on from that lie a long time ago.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:52 pm

Let poroshenko tell you himself why ceasefire is needed (I belive this was takem before Ukranian winter offensive)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAVFhPu5fio
Last edited by TISO on Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:54 pm

Sadurian wrote:No Russian units? We've all moved on from that lie a long time ago.

Yep:
http://www.mediaite.com/online/senator-gives-news-outlet-exclusive-photos-of-ukrainian-war-that-are-six-years-old/
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:00 pm

Sadurian wrote:ICTV, that Ukrainian TV station that, since the 2014 Crimean invasion, has suddenly switched to broadcasting Russian TV shows and pro-Russian content instead of its former domestic Ukrainian material?

So commenting on the station (and your percived bias of it) instead of Ukranian army chief of staff statement which was quite clear. A bit lame.
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:10 pm

... and Western sources discredited them within hours. If only the Russians had done the same with their photo of MH-17....

No, a dodgy US senator trying to improve his personal standing by finding images online is not really an argument that Russia isn't supplying the separatist rebels with arms, equipment and troops. The US (and UK, and other European countries) have a handful of officials and media figures of dubious character and some who are even barking mad. I dare say that Russia has the same. The difference is that we recognise our idiots and lambast them. In Russia they allow them to speak in an official capacity.

A collection of photos downloaded from the internet is not any sort of proof of Russian involvement. Time- and geo-stamped social media messages sent by Russian troops using mobile phones from within the UKraine, however, is.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:23 pm

TISO wrote:So commenting on the station (and your percived bias of it) instead of Ukranian army chief of staff statement which was quite clear. A bit lame.

My 'perceived bias' is clear. Before the Russians invaded the Crimea, the TV company showed normal Ukrainian television. Immediately after the invasion the station stopped broadcasting. After a delay it started up again, and has subsequently been heavily criticised for suddenly switching to being almost exclusively Russian in content, with an emphasis on Russian military and legal programmes. It is not so much a bias as a fairly obvious conclusion of what happened to the control of that TV station. That it is Moscow controlled makes it a distinctly dubious source of balanced information. That's not 'lame', it is having confidence, or not, in your source of information.

As for what General Muzhenko actually said, I would probably agree. No regular Ukrainian units are fighting regular Russian units who are fighting as part of the Russian Army in the Ukraine. Well, no, obviously. That would mean that Russia had invaded mainland Ukraine.* Had there been any proof of this then the war would be taking an enormous escalation with Russia formally at war with the Ukraine, with all that this would entail for the international response.

What there is abundant evidence of, however, is that Russia is militarily supporting the rebels with modern hardware such as heavy weapons and armour, is actively recruiting and sending regular troops (and most probably special forces) with all their standard-issue Russian hardware and equipment to fight as part of the rebel forces, and is using the Russian border as a safe route for supplying and reinforcing the rebels.

The difference between what Russia is supplying and what would be considered normal for 'volunteers' or 'troops fighting whilst on holiday' (possibly the most ridiculous of the many excuses so far), is that very few armies allow serving soldiers to privately go and fight in independent wars whilst still signed up for service in the mother country. Not only that, but even fewer allow their soldiers to take their tanks and heavy artillery with them when they go on holiday.

Again, it is so much hot air from Moscow, trying to twist a statement into meaning something that it doesn't. The danger is that, when Putin want to make a sensible statement in the future, his credibility will be so diminished that nobody will believe him.


*Let's not forget, however, that regular Russian units fighting as part of the regular Russian Army are currently occupying the Crimea, part of Ukraine's territory.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:18 pm

More on the situation regarding media and journalists in the Ukraine.

Report by the OSCE Representative on Freedom of the Media “Media Freedom under siege in Ukraine”

It makes for depressing reading, with attacks on journalists (including murders), threats against TV and media outlets, and assaults on media offices. It is this sort of chaos and faction-based media that makes any sort of media reporting of the Ukraine war by either Ukraine's or Moscow's media, highly suspect.

In particular, I'd like to quote the following:
On May 7-9, Privet/Novosti Kramatorska newspaper and its web portal ceased operation, reportedly because of threats from separatists. Lanet Cable Operator switched off nine Ukrainian channels (Inter, Ukraine, 1+1, ICTV, STB, Noviy Kanal, 5 Kanal, 112 Ukraine and TVi) in Severodonetsk, reportedly because of threats from separatists and demands that the operator broadcast Russia 24 and LifeNews instead. Terrestrial broadcasting of 1+1 channel was switched off in Lisichansk, and an armed, separatist group took control of the Donbass and Union channels in Donetsk. In Luhansk, 1+1 and 5 Kanal cable and terrestrial feeds were switched off. Previously, the First Ukrainian National Channel was switched off. In Donetsk, after seizure of the regional transmission centre, Ukrainian TV channels 1+1, K1, ICTV and 5 Kanal were replaced by Russian channels STS, TVN, ORT and RTR Planeta. Electric cables of the Kyiv TV tower were set on fire, reportedly as a result of arson. Broadcasts of some channels were suspended, but resumed shortly after the reserve cables were made operational. In Kostyantynivka, the editorial office of Provintsia newspaper was seized by armed individuals in uniform and its staff was told to leave town (the newspaper’s office had previously been set on fire). Nikolai Ryabchenko, a journalist contributing to many local media outlets, reportedly disappeared near Mariupol (he was also the target of earlier attacks). The editorial office of Gornyak newspaper in Torez was raided by approximately 50 unidentified people. No journalists were injured, however the office was seriously damaged and much of the equipment was destroyed or stolen. Russia Today journalist, Graham Phillips, tweeted that a bounty had been placed on him. Sergei Garmash, editor of the Ostrov news portal, was attacked and shot at near Donetsk. Oleg Konstantinov from Dumskaya, Petr Rakul from Information Centre and Anton Dotsenko from Timer were shot and seriously injured. Natalya Tarasovskaya from 5 Kanal and Anna Levchenko from Timer were attacked and threatened during protests in Odesa. The crew of ICTV was stopped by unidentified people in uniform on the outskirts of Sloviansk, threatened, searched and interrogated. The journalists were set free but their equipment was confiscated.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sun Feb 15, 2015 5:44 pm

Image
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich


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