Crimea / Ukraine

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Sadurian
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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sun Feb 15, 2015 5:55 pm

A rather chilling piece from the Telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... clear.html

A lot of state-sponsored extremist posturing in Russia, most frighteningly involving images and threats of nuclear war. Moscow has turned up the anti-West propaganda to the point where about 42% of Russians allegedly believe that the USA and Russia are mortal enemies. There is allegedly a belief in Russia that the West is using the Ukraine as a stepping stone to invade Russia itself.... Ordinary Russians are actually becoming convinced that nuclear weapons might be the answer.

“Of course I don’t want an atomic war with the West,” said Yegor Denisov, a twentysomething computer programmer. “But we have to defend ourselves from our enemies. And this,” he said, gesturing at the ballistic missile on his newly bought T-shirt, “will help us do that.”


Aside from talking about a jaw-dropping amount of disinformation, lack of factual information and impartial reporting in Russia, such as Putin's announcement that a “Nato legion” is fighting alongside the Ukrainian army", (can you imagine the logistical nightmare that a 'NATO legion' would involve!), it is also interesting to see the hysterical levels that the Russian media are whipping themselves up to;

During the era of political romanticism, the Soviet Union pledged never to use nuclear weapons first,” Kiselyov told the audience of Vesti Nedeli, his current affairs show, one of the country’s most widely watched programmes. “But Russia’s current military doctrine does not.” He paused briefly for effect. “No more illusions.”
...
Last spring, as Washington warned of sanctions over Russia’s seizure of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, Kiselyov boasted about his country’s fearsome nuclear arsenal. “Russia is the only country in the world realistically capable of turning the US into radioactive ash,” he declared.


Is it perhaps time to cancel the war and just order an extra-large container of straight-jackets, treating the current Moscow leadership as you would any other dangerous lunatics?

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby canambridge » Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:47 pm

If it was not scary, it would be funny.

No doubt the Russians have "proof" of the NATO legions to go along with their "proof" that Russia is not supporting the entirely self organized and equipped Ukrainian seperatists.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:54 pm

Well, the ceasefire has been broken - although it would be more accurate to say that it was never adhered to. The rebels say that it doesn't apply to Debaltseve because they are still fighting for the town, and to stop fighting now would be 'dishonourable'.

I doubt many people are surprised.

What this does do, however, is underline that diplomatic efforts to stop the fighting are unlikely to succeed. The Ukrainian government is unwilling to pull back and simply allow the rebels to move into areas currently in conflict, and the rebels won't pull back from places where they are fighting. That really makes any form of ceasefire agreement pointless.

So, what next? Given direct Russian support for the separatist rebels, does the West bite the bullet and likewise prop up the Ukrainians? If the Ukraine conflict were an internal civil war then we should avoid prolonging the conflict by supplying arms. However, when one side is clearly being supplied with free heavy weapons and troops and the other not, the moral equation changes.

Aside from a few hot-heads, I doubt that many in the West want war with Russia, but that is what Putin is apparently threatening if the West helps the Ukraine. He seems to believe that Russia has some moral (and even religious!) duty to fight with the rebels, yet nobody is allowed to do likewise for the Ukraine government forces. The overblown rhetoric of recent months is probably designed to scare Western governments into believing that Putin is just crazy enough to start a nuclear conflict over the issue, but would his staff and generals agree? The Russian leadership is not entirely crazy, just scared. Putin has recreated a Stalinist state where disagreement or lack of support of Putin is a really bad idea. Totalitarian states exist through fear, but sometimes the fear of external consequences outweigh the fear of internal disagreement.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:20 pm

Further to the Telegraph piece on the upsurge of militaristic chest-beating in Russia.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/0 ... 5A20150204

Russia is reportedly planning to receive 50 new ICBMs this year. The article doesn't state whether these are replacements or additions to the nuclear stockpile, but if Putin is going to tear up the existing agreements on numbers he is most assuredly going to restart the Cold War.

Most notable to my eyes is the report that Moscow apparently sees RPAS ('drones') as being equal to Intermediate-Range Nuclear Missiles in terms of treaty obligations....

The United States accuses Moscow of violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty by testing a ground-launched cruise missile. Russia argues that Washington's use of drones and other intermediate-range arms amounts to a violation of the treaty.


I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that Putin is really wanting to 'prove' himself in a face-to-face stand-off with the West. He is doing just about everything he possibly can to aggravate both the USA and the EU, whilst simultaneously playing the 'macho hard man' at home. This is, after all, the man who felt the need to prove his masculinity by posing for homo-erotic photographs without a trace of irony. A source within Serbia also informs me that the Serbian press have started printing stories about him fathering coach-loads of illegitimate children, reportedly in response to the accusations that he is gay and over-compensating for it.

With Putin controlling what the Russia people see and hear, the population are (openly, at least) convinced that this current situation is all the fault of the West, and that we are doing it all to topple Putin himself and invade Russia. In the days before Gorbachev, the people were cynical enough to treat such government pronouncements as the bollocks that they are, but there is now a generation who seem more willing to swallow anything coming from Moscow Central.

The big danger is that it could all become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Eventually the West will have to act militarily if Putin continues with his land-snatching. The priority will, of course, be getting rid of Vlad himself, but in doing so he will be able to turn to the Russia people and bleat 'I told you so'. That is almost certainly why the West is currently sitting on its hands, but unless concessions are made, patience will wear out and a more direct response might become necessary.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:28 am

After deliberately delaying the Minsk II agreement in order to allow separatist rebels to take Debaltseve, Putin is now pushing for the Ukrainian government to surrender the town. He says that it is for humanitarian reasons. Some cynics might read this as a shameless push to further the position of the rebels, especially as the rebels decided that Debaltseve shouldn't be part of the ceasefire because they were assaulting it. It transpired that the town was actually not surrounded as claimed, and that, in fact, the pro-Russians had used the ceasefire negotiations to reinforce their assault forces, wishing to present the town as already being in their hands. That they were unable to take it in time must have severely annoyed Putin, who had gone out of his way to give them extra time, and now looks like a hypocrite.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31511926

Presumably, given that Moscow wants the town to be outside the ceasefire agreement, the rebels will be fine with the Ukrainian forces mounting a counter-attack. Having said which, reports on the state of the rail junction suggest that the place is no longer as strategically valuable as it was. That's what happens when you bombard a town with modern artillery, the infrastructure tends to be a tad damaged. How many Russian railway engineers are now being recruited and ready to be driven in to repair the place? More to the point, will the rebels suddenly find that they have sufficient roubles to get the railway fixed? Will those roubles be worth anything by that stage?

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby canambridge » Wed Feb 18, 2015 2:26 am

it's the old "Talk-talk, shoot-shoot" formula. Use negotiation and diplomacy to stop the other side and position themselves for a military advantage.

Obviously the west is not going to fight for Ukraine, a war with Russia just isn't worth it. So Putin-Russia win a Munich style victory. Ukraine loses the Crimea, it's border regions and better become a well behaved vassal of Russia.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Ricky » Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:48 am

Sadurian wrote:He is doing just about everything he possibly can to aggravate both the USA and the EU, whilst simultaneously playing the 'macho hard man' at home. This is, after all, the man who felt the need to prove his masculinity by posing for homo-erotic photographs without a trace of irony.


Just Mussolini mk.2

Unfortunately for all, he has a rather larger and more effective country under his thumb than 1930s Italy
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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Ricky » Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:53 am

Sadurian wrote: Totalitarian states exist through fear, but sometimes the fear of external consequences outweigh the fear of internal disagreement.


Sometimes... but rarely. Generally the fear of certain punishment now outweighs the fear of possible punishment in the future
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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:44 pm

For non german readers use Google translate:
Fall of Debaltsevo was part of the deal between west and Putin:
http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/02/18/fall-von-debalzewo-war-teil-des-deals-des-westens-mit-putin/

Right extremists in the Ukraine - there is only military solution:
http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/02/20/rechtsextreme-in-der-ukraine-es-gibt-nur-eine-militaerische-loesung/

A source within Serbia also informs me that the Serbian press have started printing stories about him fathering coach-loads of illegitimate children, reportedly in response to the accusations that he is gay and over-compensating for it.

Could you point me to Serbian media sites doing that.
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:02 pm

TISO wrote:
A source within Serbia also informs me that the Serbian press have started printing stories about him fathering coach-loads of illegitimate children, reportedly in response to the accusations that he is gay and over-compensating for it.

Could you point me to Serbian media sites doing that.

I'll have a half-hearted hunt about online but, as I specifically mentioned, the information comes second-hand from someone in Serbia and I'm not familiar with Serbian newspapers. To be honest, I imagine any such story originated in Moscow, but the Serbian media is not really known for its critical analysis of Moscow 'facts' so the two sources are pretty interchangeable.

EDIT: Pass the brain bleach. I have no wish to search again for Serbian media or Pravda reporting in relation to Putin+homosexual+illegitimate. God some countries have fucked-up morals. The vile crap that the likes of Pravda spouts on the subject makes my stomach crawl.

What I find after around five minutes were a collection of fairly recent stories about Putin allegedly having an affair, possible illegitimate children, and a very odd personal life. As with most such news stories, tracking them to the original source is difficult. I'll not bother going further because, as I say, the whole search area is distinctly unpalatable.
Last edited by Sadurian on Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Fri Feb 20, 2015 11:10 pm

Ooops, looks like the Russians are getting either careless or just blasé.

Further evidence of large-scale active 'recruitment' from Russian regular army units to fight in the Ukraine, and how they are being told to pretend that it is the local militia doing the fighting.
http://paulgregorysblog.blogspot.co.uk/ ... veals.html

Confirmation of geo-tagged social media 'selfies' that prove active Russian involvement.
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian- ... 014-7?IR=T

I'm just wondering if it really news any more? Putin can keep denying things, but, like the late lamented information comedy of Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, it just makes him looks less credible and more ridiculous when denying what everyone else can see for themselves. The constant refrain that the West (and just about everyone else) is determined to turn Russia into a pariah state becomes self-fulfilling. Russia is isolated and Putin can't bring himself to admit that it is in the wrong. Instead, he is going to lash out and accuse everyone of unfairly picking on him, whilst not stopping to wonder why most of the rest of the world sees Putin's Russia as dangerous and unpredictable.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sat Feb 21, 2015 2:08 pm

Moscow has organised a rally against what it describes as an illegal 'coup' in the Ukraine. Is it me, or is Moscow's memory and self-analysis rather lacking here?

They react angrily at what they say was an armed uprising that overthrew the incumbent ruler to establish a completely new government.

Does the year 1917 mean anything? At least Yanukovych wasn't secretly murdered by the new government in some cellar.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:34 am

Russians are so predictable. Push on them and US unfriendly states get new toys:
http://rt.com/news/234855-russia-iran-missiles-deal/
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby Sadurian » Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:21 am

In another piece of 'Russians are so predictable' news:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31669061

Politician who spoke out over his opposition to the war in the Ukraine is assassinated. I say 'assassinated' rather than 'murdered' because even Putin's spokesman says that it 'bears all the hallmarks of a contract killing'. Cynics might point out that he should know.

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Re: Crimea / Ukraine

Postby TISO » Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:26 pm

Sadurian wrote:In another piece of 'Russians are so predictable' news:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31669061

Politician who spoke out over his opposition to the war in the Ukraine is assassinated. I say 'assassinated' rather than 'murdered' because even Putin's spokesman says that it 'bears all the hallmarks of a contract killing'. Cynics might point out that he should know.

Always ak yourself who benefits. It's certanly not Putin for whom he was a pet opositioneer. Not really dangerous and not really anoying but necessary as windowdresing.

BTW you might like this (be shure to check comment section as lot more photos with information are there):
Armor
Captured armor:
http://lostarmour.info/spoils/

destroyed armour:
http://lostarmour.info/armour/

archive:
http://lostarmour.info/archive/

Shushpanzers i.e. Improvised armor/technicals:
http://lostarmour.info/shushpanzer/

Artilery:
captured tube arty:
http://lostarmour.info/artspoils/

destroyed tube arty:
http://lostarmour.info/artloss/

captured MLRS arty:
http://lostarmour.info/mrlloss/

destroyed MLRS arty:
http://lostarmour.info/mrlspoils/


Aviation losses:
http://lostarmour.info/aviation/

For general pic's of tanks/APCs etc with info whre available who and where go to Техника ВСУ (upper right corner) menu and select the type.
"I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you"
Genghis Kahn

I am not ordering you to attack, I am ordering you to die. Until we die, we can win the time for the arrival of new troops and commanders.
from the order for counter attack from lt.col. Mustafa Kemal to his 57th Brigade on 25th of April 1915 Gallipoli

"I am not without sins. There cannot be an airborne assault general who has no sins. I spit on popularity ratings. I live and serve as I see fit."
Lt. general Lebed Aleksandr Ivanovich


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